B
🤖aiEnds 1mo

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Yes2.5%
97.5%No
$109K
Total Vol
$894
24h Vol
$21K
Liquidity
-0.9%
24h Change

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

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Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

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Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0%

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

7%

FAQ

What is "Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? "?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 2.5% and No at 97.5%. This is based on $109,191.32 total volume.
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