B
🏛️politicsEnds 4mo

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes38.5%
61.5%No
$5.1M
Total Vol
$15K
24h Vol
$104K
Liquidity
+1.0%
24h Change

About This Market

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related Markets

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?

0%

Jover vs. Silva: Match O/U 21.5

100%+50.0%

Jover vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5

0%-50.4%

Jover vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

0%-50.4%

Silva vs. Mena: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5

100%+50.0%

FAQ

What is "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices Yes at 38.5% and No at 61.5%. This is based on $5,104,363 total volume.
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